May 30, 2025: The Ukraine War has forced Russia to be creative in dealing with unrest in other parts of the country. The need for manpower for fighting in Ukraine has depleted the number of police available, especially in remote rural areas. Except for the sons of senior officials, every military age male can be mobilized by the very active and mobile Russian military recruiters. This policy often causes unrest that the depleted police forces in rural areas cannot deal with.

The national government came up with some other solutions to deal with unrest and one of them was unemployment. The government can control unemployment rates by making it more difficult to establish a business in some areas. By enacting stricter rules for business loans, it becomes more difficult to open new factories or mining operations. This sort of thing is not people. People may be unemployed, but they can usually figure out a way. When the national government is displeased by how citizens in some areas are acting up or opposing the Ukraine war, it can suddenly become more difficult to find a job, followed by stricter rules for obtaining unemployment benefits. All this was in stark contrast to how good life was before the Ukraine War. Life was good, but there were a few problems.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left Russia as the largest, wealthiest, and most populous of the fourteen new states that emerged after the demise of the Soviet empire. At first the prospects for the new Russian Federation looked bright. That did not last long because population growth ended in 1993. At that point Russia had 148 million people. Since 1993 the population has steadily declined because of low birth rates, shorter life spans for males and over a million men and women migrating to western Europe or North America.

Desperate to deal with this problem, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. While Ukrainians share many characteristics with Russians, like customs, education levels, and similar languages, Russian rule was not wanted. For centuries Ukrainians have held on to their desire for independence. Russian domination, misrule and mismanagement of the economy led to the collapse of the Soviet Union and an opportunity for forty million Ukrainians to finally regain self-rule. That lasted for 23 years before the Russians decided they could solve their declining population problem by rebuilding their empire, starting with the 40 million Ukrainians. Russia initially believed that most Ukrainians would welcome this and ignore their plans to join the European Union and NATO. The Ukrainians disagreed and fought the Russians to a ruinous, for Russia, standstill. Substantial military and economic aid from NATO enabled the Ukrainians to stop the Russians and eventually expel them.

The Russian military has lost nearly a million men dead, missing or deserted since its second invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Over a million Russian military age men soon left Russia to avoid being mobilized into the army and sent to die in Ukraine. The Russian government then outlawed emigration to avoid military service but has not been able to enforce the new law. All this means that the Russian population is rapidly approaching 138 million and, unless Russia wins or abandons the Ukraine war, the Russian population will continue to shrink. Nearly all the lost men were part of the workforce and so many men are now gone that the Russian economy suffers from a significant labor shortage. Encouraging migrants from former portions of the Soviet Union with high unemployment rates worked for a while. Then the army decided these new residents of Russia were liable for military service. That sent most of the migrants back to their homelands.

Eventually a growing number of Russian soldiers refused to fight in Ukraine. This led to tense standoffs between reluctant soldiers and their officers who have been told to shoot soldiers refusing to fight. This didn’t go well because the soldiers in question are also armed and inclined to shoot back, or shoot first, and then leave the war. These deserters could not go home because the military police would be waiting for them. Many deserters left the country or went to some remote part of Russia where they would not be noticed or bothered, for a while anyway. With over two million Russian men killed, disabled, deserting the army or fleeing the country, Russia has a growing labor shortage. Importing men from remote parts of Russia with promises of jobs and no forced service in the army did not work. Memories are long when it comes to life and death situations, and the trustworthiness of government promises. By 2025 Russia had an escalating shortage of soldiers and workers. Russia was losing the war because of that, and the economy was limping along because of the labor shortage. As long as Russian leaders keep making bad decisions, they will continue to lose Russian workers and soldiers.