July 22, 2025: Military age men in the Russian regions of Chechnya and Dagestan are refusing to serve in the military. Russian police and army personnel are raiding homes and businesses to seize local men for the military. This has led to locals muttering of another insurrection against Russian rule. Russia needs more men, not another Caucasus rebellion. So far Russia is pushing its forceful efforts to get troops despite the rebellion threat.

The current war in Ukraine has, so far, cost Russia over a million casualties. Over a million Russian military age men have fled the country to avoid certain death in Ukraine. Some of these casualties are from Chechnya and Dagestan, where frequent rebellions against Russian rules are a local tradition.

Twenty-three years ago Russia declared it would no longer draft Chechens or Dagestanis. For the previous three years young men from Dagestan often complained to the government that the army wouldn't accept them as conscripts, or even as volunteers. The government insisted that those rejected had physical, psychological, or legal problems. But before long people down in the Caucasus figured out that their children weren't being allowed in the military. Given the high unemployment down there, and the warrior ethos common in many parts of the Caucasus, this became a major complaint. Instead of allowing young men from the Caucasus in, the government admitted it did indeed have a ban. The unofficial reason was not wanting to train future terrorists, rebels, and criminals as well as reducing disciplinary problems in the army.

While the army has been complaining of rampant draft dodging ever since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, they also have reasons for not wanting recruits from the Caucasus. Even before 1991, the Russian dominated army warned company commanders to not allow more than ten Chechens in their unit. Experience had shown that ten or more Chechens or Dagestanis would form a very tight, tough, and disciplined clique that would prey on the other troops in the company and cause all manner of discipline and crime problems. If you find yourself with more than ten Chechens, try and transfer some of them out.

While the Chechens were the worst in this respect, the Dagestanis came close. But these days the young men want to join the army and get a few years military experience, so they can qualify to become a contract soldier. These troops are paid a lot more and are considered professional soldiers. Commanders actually prefer contract soldiers from the Caucasus, although many will admit that it's still not wise to have too many in an infantry company or platoon.

The wartime casualties in Ukraine caused substantial personnel shortages inside Russia. By 2024 the military losses were so great that the non-military organizations and the workforce were suffering considerable shortages of personnel.

This forces Russian leaders to choose between keeping military forces up to strength and protecting the people in Russia and maintaining adequate work and internal security and safety forces. While military leaders demanded that their forces had priority, Russian business and internal security and safety force leaders warned that if they could not get enough people, life would be more dangerous inside Russia and the economy would falter because of the worker shortage. By 2025 the internal needs of Russia had become more demanding and the military could not get all the additional troops they demanded.

There were other problems. The Ukraine War demonstrated how badly corruption and poor leadership had damaged their military. When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, half the Soviet population left and formed independent states. What remained was Russia and some troublesome minorities, mostly in the Caucasus, which also inherited the economic problems that were a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia also inherited the mighty Red Army which had defeated the Germans in World War II and remained a large and formidable force as long as the Soviet Union lasted.

After 1991 Russia found that it had neither the manpower nor the money to maintain the Red Army and its armed forces personnel decreased by 80 percent in a few years. It wasn’t just the loss of half the Soviet era population or the post 1991 financial difficulties. There were other problems. The post-Soviet Russians were able to force the government to reduce conscription to one year. The government also noted that the Russian birth rate was falling and that eventually reached the point where more Russians were dying than were being born. This dramatically reduced ethnic Russian military-age manpower and revealed how much Russians wanted an end to conscription. That meant creating an all-volunteer military, something that was common in Western nations, especially after 1991. Russia had a few good years after 1991 but was often short of cash and the attack on Ukraine in 2014 and invasion in 2022 found Russia subject to harsh economic sanctions. Russia is having a difficult time paying for its military, which suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses during the first few months of the Ukraine invasion.