September 9, 2024: Russian military and political leaders were shocked by the August 6 Ukrainian invasion of their Kursk province. The Ukrainians unexpectedly rushed in over 10,000 troops, hundreds of armored vehicles and a well thought out plan of what to do.

The Russians never expected Ukrainian forces to invade Russia and there was confusion and consternation among Russian military and political leaders over what to do. The Ukrainians quickly seized control of a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory including 28 towns and villages. This caused a massive evacuation of civilians, with about 150,000 fleeing their homes. About three dozen civilians were killed and 150 wounded. Ukrainian forces destroyed three bridges that brought supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine.

The incursion also seized control of a pipeline transporting natural gas to Western Europe. Despite the state of war and economic sanctions on Russia, some essential exports, like natural gas, are still going to European customers. This natural gas disruption caused natural gas prices in Europe to increase more than five percent. The attack also disrupted some internet and telephone service in Russia.

Worse, the Ukrainians captured key railroads such that Russian rail supply lines to Russian-0ccupied southern Ukraine have lengthened by about 40 percent one-way right when they must rush troops to this new gaping hole in their lines. Those troops must get there with their own vehicles because the Russians lack the rail capacity to both move them by train and keep supplies going to Russian forces in occupied Ukraine.

Ukraine also captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, most of them unarmed conscripts performing support tasks. The incursion also confirmed the decline in Russian military power after more than two years of war. After a week, Russia had been unable to muster a defensive effort. Most Russian troops are tied down in eastern Ukraine where they keep launching attacks and keep failing to accomplish anything except get more Russian soldiers killed or wounded.

The Kursk operation caused Russia to call off these attacks in eastern Ukraine and send some of these troops to Kursk province. All Russia had available for the Kursk incursion were several hundred conscript soldiers who were not supposed to be sent into combat. These troops were unable to stop the Ukrainian and most of them were captured, or simply threw up their hands and surrendered.

The Russian FSB, the secret police/intelligence agency successor to the Soviet era KGB, is in charge of border security. The Ukrainian revealed that the Russian border with Ukraine was not well guarded by FSB personnel and local National Guard forces. Russian civilians complained that neither FSB or National Guard personnel did anything to help civilians fleeing the invaders. The civilians accused their government of deliberately abandoning them.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin was revealed to be weak and unable to muster forces to confront the invasion. Putin is already receiving a lot of criticism from Russians, including some of his close associates, for the mishandling of the Ukraine invasion and the heavy costs paid by ordinary Russians as well as Putin’s wealthy business associates and supporters. So far Putin has refused to make peace on terms the Ukrainian could accept. The Ukrainians want the 27 percent of their country occupied by Russia between 2014 and 2023. The Ukrainians have turned the tables and exposed how Russia has exhausted their military resources to achieve these gains and are now in a mood to give it all back in return for peace and an end to economic sanctions. The Ukrainian incursion has made it obvious that Russia has lost the war it started. Russia is now in a situation where they will have to surrender all their occupied Ukrainian territory to end the war and hope that NATO and Ukrainian demands for restitution do not become another economic problem for them.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been running Russia for twenty-five years and is likely to lose his job over the Ukraine fiasco. The economic and military cost to Russia has been great and everyone justifiably blames Putin. He wanted to keep Ukraine out of NATO and while absorbing Ukraine back into the Russian Empire. Once peace is declared, Ukraine will become the 33rd member of NATO and be well protected from any future Russian attacks.