February 12, 2025: Russia is preparing its combat forces for battles that might or might not occur between now and 2030. Russian forces are still locked in combat with Ukrainians and leader Vladimir Putin is vague about how and when this war will end. The new American president wants to end the war quickly but the Russians are not responding.

What Russia is doing is building a lot more weapons and trying to recruit more troops. Few Russian men are willing to serve in the military, despite high pay and large payments when they agree to enlist. Potential Russian recruits know that going to Ukraine is often a death sentence. They know this because so many Russian soldiers have come back in coffins or not at all. The government makes large payments to families of dead soldiers. Russian military age men are reluctant to join the military, even with the financial incentives. Over a million military age men have left the country and those still in Russia avoid the recruiters, who often visit workplaces to arrest men who refused to cooperate with recruiters. Despite all these problems, the Russian armed forces have about a million personnel. Most have jobs that are not needed in Ukraine.

Russia reports that it is recruiting 30,000 troops a month. At the same time Russia is hiring North Korean mercenaries to fight in Ukraine. Russian government officials admitted that their forces had suffered nearly half a million casualties in 2024. There were similar losses in 2023 and 2022. The fact that Russia now has North Korean soldiers in Russian uniforms fighting Ukrainians indicates a reluctance to risk more Russian losses.

There are still about 200,000 Russian troops in Ukraine and most are on the defensive. Ukraine keeps its casualties down by using its armed and camera- equipped drones for most of the fighting. Currently about 90 percent of Russian casualties are caused by Ukrainian drones. Ukraine, and some Russians, put videos of these drone encounters on social media. Russia also uses drones but the Ukrainians tend to stay hidden, which is something the defender can do while the attacker has to come out into the open. These attacks have become suicidal for the Russians.

The financial incentives to join the army have attracted a growing number of older men. Russia will now accept recruits up for 70 years old for retired officers and 65 for enlisted men. Photos of current Russian troops shows a lot of grey hair and beards. Retirement age for Russians is 62, so a lot of the new troops are pensioners. The large signing bonuses and monthly pay enables these older soldiers to provide for their grandchildren and other kin.

Russia is also recruiting more women, who can take care of non-combat jobs. In Western forces, only 10-15 percent of troops are in combat units. In Russia only half the uniformed forces are support troops, the rest are for combat. Recruiting more women means more men available for combat. While women are willing the join, men are still reluctant because of the high risk of getting killed.

The government still has a problem explaining why Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in 2022. The official reason was that Ukraine is not really an independent nation but rather a portion of Russia controlled by local separatists supported by NATO nations. Russia insists that NATO is a threat to Russia despite the fact that NATO is and always has been a mutual defense organization for its 32 members who fear the possibility of Russian aggression. Ukraine wants to join NATO, which is another reason Russia invaded. NATO agrees that Ukraine can join as soon as the war is over. The Russian response is that they will keep the war going until Ukrainians stop fighting.

Keeping the war going has meant Russia remains under heavy economic sanctions that were imposed after Russia invaded. The Russian government dismisses the sanctions but the Russian economy has suffered substantial losses because obtaining essential items from the West, or even China, is difficult, expensive and often not possible.

In the year before Russia invaded Ukraine, they revealed that about a third of their population was living in poverty. Many Russians, and foreign economists, believed the real rate was nearly 70 percent. Russian living standards have suffered continuous disasters since 2013 when the price of the major exports of oil fell by more than half and was slow to recover. In 2014 Russia declared it was at war with NATO and Ukraine. That resulted in economic sanctions that have gotten worse since then. When the current Russian government took power in 2000 it became very popular by keeping a key campaign promise; to reduce the poverty rate. The official poverty rate fell from 29 percent of the population in 2000 to just under 12 percent in 2012. Then came economic disasters, some of them self-inflicted. By 2018 the poverty rate was 14 percent and 33 percent in 2019. In 2020 there was a local and international economic recession caused by covid19. That’s why the government's claim that the poverty rate was still a third of the population in 2021 was met with disbelief and derision. Many Russians compared that claim to something not heard since the days of the Soviet Union where official lies were the norm and denying them was a criminal offense.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered economic sanctions that saw the Russian poverty rate rise rapidly. As the war and the sanctions continue Russia increased its economic problems by switching to a wartime economy. That means military production has priority over civilian needs. That works when Russia is being invaded but trying that when Russia is the invader, and a failed one at that, is another matter that Vladimir Putin seems to have ignored.

Despite all these problems the Russians are determined to have a stronger military by the end of the decade. If that is the case, these troops will come in handy when the impoverished population turns to large demonstrations and sabotage to protest their dire situation.