January 19, 2025: Taiwan, an island nation off the southern coast of China, is threatened by food shortages if there is a war with China. Taiwan was established in 1949 by the democratic Republic of China or ROC who lost the two decade long civil war with the Chinese communists. Two million ROC soldiers and civilians escaped to Taiwan, which then had a population of eight million. Taiwan had been ruled by imperial China for two hundred years, then Japan for fifty years, and the ROC since 1945. It was the only part of China that the communists were unable to seize after they won the civil war.

China wants Taiwan, which it describes as a lost province of China. The Taiwanese see China as ROC territory illegally occupied by Chinese communists. The ROC was founded in 1912 and soon found itself mired in a series of rebellions and civil wars that the communist faction, backed by Russia, finally won in 1949. Ever since then the communist government has been trying to conquer Taiwan and eliminate the last organized elements of the ROC armed forces. This proved difficult because the US blocked a Communist Chinese invasion when the Korean War broke out in 1950. The US eventually normalized its relations with China as both by then had a common foe in the Soviet Union. US-Chinese relations began souring twenty years ago.

Throughout all this Taiwan was seen as a secondary problem but came the 21st Century and China was again scheming for ways to finally conquer Taiwan. One strategy, that was briefly tested, was to surround Taiwan with warships and air patrols as if China were blockading Taiwan. If China actually implemented this blockade and for some reason the Americans did not come to the aid of Taiwan, what would Taiwan do? Currently Taiwanese farms produce only 30 percent of the food needed. In 1945 there was enough farmland in Taiwan to produce enough food for everyone. Sixty years of industrialization saw factories and other industrial enterprises taking up more and more land until only 30 percent was left for farming.

Currently Taiwan has stockpiles of food that can feed the population for about seven months. As the situation grows desperate additions to those reserves can be found. Desperation always finds a way. If the blockade lasts for a year or more Taiwan would be forced to surrender to Chinese control. To avoid that unthinkable fate, Taiwan does whatever it best to maintain good relations with the United States. Because of decades of Chinese diplomatic pressure, Taiwan is a non-state. It has no seat in the United Nations. It has managed to establish diplomatic relations with 72 of the 180 nations on the planet. Taiwan has established relations with the European Union and the World Trade Organization. These relationships come and go as China continues to find ways to further isolate Taiwan. The Taiwanese respond with new methods to evade isolation and this process has become endless.

One advantage Taiwan has developed is an electronics industry that produces some essential items that no one else produces. Taiwan threatens to destroy these factories if China attacks Taiwan. As a practical matter, this would cripple the Chinese economy. China disregards such warnings and insists it would attack no matter what the consequences. Since the rest of the world also depends on these electronics there is an incentive to dissuade China from attacking. China says it won’t attack; it will just blockade and starve the Taiwanese into compliance. Taiwan responds with threats to destroy those vital electronic plants if China seems on the verge of conquering the island. A contingency plan included building some additional electronics manufacturing plants in Europe, so as not to leave the rest of the world without all the electronic components they require to keep their economies going. Taiwan knows it might take a hit from China and is seeking to give European nations a reason to support Taiwan against China.

Resourceful and innovative Taiwan abides and survives doing whatever it takes to remain independent of China.