May 26, 2025: Earlier this year Russia announced it wanted to end the Ukraine War via negotiations with the United States. This works if conducted from a position of strength. The current Russian situation is weak and getting weaker. Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is collapsing because of disinvestment. Existing capital and human infrastructure like railroads, pipelines, refineries, chemical plants and skilled workers need constant new investment for rebuilding and training of new workers in addition to adequate maintenance just to continue at existing production levels. None of those have happened at adequate levels, or not all in many cases, since the war started three years ago.

This is due to overuse of the rail system, corruption and the expected consequences of Russian industries being run by Putin-appointed gangster kleptocrats primarily interested in their immediate personal income, as opposed to shareholder representatives trying to maintain capital value. Russia’s economy has been slowly run down over the past twenty years by this kleptocracy. This process was speeded up by the Ukraine War.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has a solution. He wants to mobilize several hundred thousand more Russian men and arm them with weapons Russia won’t have until 2027 or later as his generals have advised him that there won’t even be enough equipment and weapons for the estimated July 2025 conscript class. Putin ignores the labor shortage that has crippled the Russian economy. He dismisses reports of Russian soldiers deserting and many about to be mobilized who have gone into hiding or fled the country.

The growing number of economic sanctions makes it impossible to manufacture many or any high-tech weapons. The rundown railroads are already having problems keeping remote parts of Russia supplied with food and fuel. Things aren’t so bad in Moscow, where Putin and his cronies live. Putin ignores the privations suffered in the rest of Russia, declaring them western propaganda. The provincial governors are appointed by Putin, who expects to hear from them that everything is fine. The governors go along with this until they can’t. At that point they will slip out of the country and live off the millions of dollars they have stolen and deposited in foreign banks.

Foreign analysts and realistic Russians believe that the Russian economy will collapse by the end of 2025. If that happens, Vladimir Putin’s reaction will be interesting to observe.

Meanwhile, the Ukraine War goes on. Recent negotiations with allies and other foreign countries have not gone well. These nations, especially those bordering Russia, can see who is weak, and it isn’t NATO or Ukraine. Russia is weakened by years of economic sanctions and a collapse of morale at home. Ukrainians are fighting for their homes and families while only Russian leader Vladimir Putin sees any purpose for Russia in the war. Putin can demand action but, if his soldiers will not or cannot act, there is no movement on the battlefield. Putin is running out of excuses for this dismal performance and still insists he is negotiating from a position of strength.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Putin and his associates believed they were at war with western nations, especially NATO and the United States. NATO nations were not really aware of this Russian attitude, even after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The official Russian interpretation of the situation is that Ukraine is under the control of the Americans. For that reason, Russian propaganda directed at Russian civilians portrays Ukraine as a puppet state controlled by the United States.

Russian leaders are dismayed that, when they threaten the United States, the Americans ignore them. Russian leaders get the impression that the Americans don’t take them seriously. There are reasons for that and the most obvious one is the rampant corruption in Russia.

The government is particularly concerned about the extent of corruption in the military. This alone should have prevented the 2022 Ukraine War. Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion to proceed despite the poor state of the Russian military. Russian troops stumbled forward into Ukraine and suffered such heavy losses that the invasion force was withdrawn and the survivors sent to eastern Ukraine to reinforce troops in Luhansk and Donetsk provinces.

Ukraine appealed to NATO for military aid and the response was impressive. Over 100 billion dollars’ worth of weapons soon arrived, followed by billions of dollars’ worth of economic aid. The Americans provided Ukraine with satellite photos of what the Russians were up to. It was later discovered that the Russians had no similar satellite services. The Ukrainians had a better picture of what was happening on the ground than the Russians did.

It got worse when the Ukrainians got Starlink communications kits. This gave them far better and more reliable communications than the Russians had. Some Russian troops got hold of black market Starlink gear to discover what they were missing. For Russian soldiers who knew about this, it explained why the Ukrainians always seemed to know more about what was going on in the combat zone and were able to act more quickly to deal with opportunities.

Putin saw all this as an American ploy to embarrass him and show the Russian military that their boss was unable to supply them with anything similar to what the Americans were providing to the Ukrainians. This was true but Putin warned Russians that they were dealing with an American colossus that was determined to destroy Russia.

The reality was that United States leaders, military and political, didn’t consider Russia or the Russian military very formidable. This was all revealed in Ukraine. Putin yearned for the pre-war times when he could portray the Russian military as a mighty force that was not crippled by corruption as well as incompetent and corrupt leadership.

The United States did not pay much attention to Russia. Instead the Americans are fixated on China and its new aircraft carriers and a fleet that is larger, in number of ships than the U.S. Navy. Putin also ignores the Chinese. He should because the Chinese are talking about taking back most of the Russian Far East province and renaming cities like Vladivostok with their original Chinese names like Yongmingcheng. This was a Chinese city that had been in this location for over a thousand years until the Russians forced China to surrender the territory to them in 1859 and renamed Yongmingcheng as Vladivostok.

China wants its stolen territories back and Putin fears that while Russia is busy in Ukraine the Chinese might make a move. Putin notes that Western nations do not speak out against China regaining the territories taken by Russia 166 years ago. The Chinese have long memories and the Russians don’t, until it is too late. Putin is correct about the terrible situation Russia is in.

At the same time Putin is forced by his generals to pay attention to what NATO nations bordering Russia are up to. Poland and the Baltic States welcomed American troops who visited and agreed with the U.S. proposal to build an American base in Poland. To eastern Europe NATO members, especially the Poles, this is a great idea. Putin sees it as an old Russian nightmare come to life.