March 6, 2026: A week ago the United States and Israel began launching air strikes against Iran in an effort to bring down the religious dictatorship that had misruled the country since 1979 and been a threat to most nations in the region and a promoter of terrorist activities worldwide. The American forcers used bases in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait to carry out these attacks and these countries joined in with their own attacks once it was obvious that the American and Israeli air operations were indeed taking apart the Iranian military. By the end of March 5^th Iranian ballistic missile attacks had diminished by 90 percent, drone attacks were down by 83 percent. Air strikes concentrated on the remaining supplies of Iranian drones and missiles.

So far, the attacks have destroyed more than two thousand targets inside Iran and sunk or disabled 30 ships of the Iranian navy. The Iranian air force and air defences have been largely destroyed allowing unarmed transports carrying electronic monitoring equipment or supplies for active Iranian rebels, to operate freely.

During the first week of air operations against Iranian security forces the IRGC has lost about 15 percent of its personnel to desertion, with some of those men leaving with their weapons and joining the armed rebel groups forming inside Iran. Another one percent of IRGC men have been killed and few percent more wounded. The IRGC uses a decentralized command structure that enables members to improvise as needed to protect the Islamic government.

From the beginning American and Israeli military and political leaders stressed that these operations would require a month or more of continuous attacks to succeed. The Iranian military and security forces are extensive and spread all over Iran. Most have been located studied and attacks plans prepared. The initial attacks took out air defense and ballistic missile storage and launch sites. The attacks did not eliminate all Iranian offensive weapons. The damage Iranian counterattacks could inflict was significant, but not extensive enough to persuade any of Iran’s neighbors to support Iranian efforts to halt the war.

Mojataba Khamenei was quickly appointed to succeed his father Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28^th, during the first wave of attacks. Israel had already decided to kill the Ayatollah last November and had been tracking his movements since then. Attacks against Mojataba Khamenei and the Council of Guardians would eliminate all the Ayatollah as well as the younger Khamenei. Surviving Iranian officials announced that all surviving leaders were ordered to operate independently if they were no longer able to contact senior leadership. Ismail Qaani, head of Iran’s Quds Force is apparently still alive, despite reports that he is dead.

Speaking of the dead, it’s also unclear how much, if any, popular enthusiasm there is to replace Islam with the ancient Persian Zoroastrianism religion. This was the religion of Persia for 1200 years until forcibly preplaced by Islam in 651 AD.

Meanwhile the airstrikes were systematically destroying IRGC\Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which normally consists of about 120,000 members. The volunteer Basij militia has up to half a million armed members and the Iranian army, navy and air force comprise about 400,000 active duty personnel. For the Iranian government, the problems is that a growing number of these troops are joining the rebels or simply deserting. The initial airstrikes encouraged this by killing many, if not most of the senior military leadership. Those appointed to replace the dead leaders were soon aware that they could quickly be attacked. Iran has long known that their military and government bureaucracy was filled with rebels and these rebels were now taking advantage of the disorder to eliminate rivals and key personnel still loyal to the religious dictatorship. Iranian security forces are still seeking Israeli agents and recently arrested general Esmail Qaani, the commander of the IRGC Quds Force after accusing him of working for Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence organization. Quds force organizes and supports Iran-backed militias and terrorist groups throughout the region. These include Hezbollah and Hamas as well as several Islamic terrorist groups.

It will be a week or more before accurate data on losses are available. Meanwhile, anti-government operatives are still able to assist in identifying new leaders who can be attacked by air or by anti-government Iranians. As more IRGC, Basij, police and regular military personnel join the rebels it will be easier to obtain accurate data on the state of the religious dictatorships armed forces.

Targeting information is still getting out of Iran and air strikes are quickly carried out to eliminate government forces or moved/newly created facilities and such. As fewer and fewer armed Iranians loyal to the government remain, they prove their loyalty by fighting to the death. Nearly half a century of Islamic government created a lot of true believers but their numbers are declining as the air and ground attacks continue. It is still unclear if newly liberated Iranians would call for the elimination of Islam inside Iran. Iraqi Kurdish militias and Iranian Kurds are also preparing enter the fight against Iranian forces. In another week the situation will be clarified and much less chaotic. There will still be Iranian military forces operational and dangerous to confront, at least for Iranian civilians. Armed Iranian civilians and soldiers who switched sides are another matter. In another month, one can only hope for a major improvement.