April 29, 2026: Ukraine uses 30 percent more drones than Russia. In the first half of 2025 there was a sharp increase in the Russian use of attack drones, primarily FPV\First Person View drones. The Ukrainian drone advantage slowed, stopped and sometimes reversed the momentum of the Russians offensive operations

It’s a similar situation with the daily percentage of drones operating with FOG\Fiber Optic Guidance. These drones are controlled via a fiber-optic cable that can be many kilometers long. FOG drones cannot be jammed. For Ukraine, 32 percent of drones use FOG guidance while the Russians use only 24 percent.

The Ukrainians were faster when it came to new innovations in drone design. The Russians imitate this progress but are always a few months or more behind.

In some parts of the 1,100 kilometer front line the Russians can concentrate more drones than the Ukrainians have for offensive operations. There are fewer Russian offensives because of high casualties, troop shortages and declining morale among the troops. The Ukrainians have taken advantage of this and are reclaiming more territory from the Russians. At this rate, the Russians might be pushed out of Ukraine by 2027. One factor making this possible are the increasing number of long-range attacks against Russian refineries, pipelines, weapons and electronics manufacturing. Last month, in a particularly bold move, Ukraine sent nearly a hundred drones against the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, which is 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine. While the Russians admitted they had to delay some operations at Plesetsk, it is still unclear how much, if any damage, the drones did to the Plesetsk facility.

These Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia are disrupting Russian efforts to use their air defense systems effectively, or at all. The S300 and S400 air defense batteries have to be moved by rail or barge to new locations. The Ukrainian drones are now equipped with guidance systems that can attack one of several targets, depending on which target has the least air defense systems protecting it. The air defense crisis also means that front line troops are often left with little or no air defense systems.

For Russia, the most damaging Ukrainian innovation in drone warfare is their use of AI/Artificial Intelligence for drone targeting systems. The AI drone contains a targeting system that finds targets. The AI drone operator confirms which targets are real and once a target is confirmed the AI targeting system needs no further communication with anyone. It is resistant to all forms of jamming.

Modern warfare has been radically changed by the introduction of FPV drones. These drones are an omnipresent aerial threat to armored vehicles and infantry on foot. Each FPV drone costs less than a thousand dollars. Operators use the video camera on the drone to see what is below and find targets. Armed FPV operators are several kilometers away to decide when their FPV drones will drop explosives on an armored vehicle, which has thinner armor on top, or infantry in the open or in trenches. To do so, the drone operators often operate in pairs, with one flying behind the other and concentrating on the big picture while seeking a likely target. When such a target is found by the reconnaissance drone, the armed drone is directed to the target. The two FPV drone operators are usually in the same room or tent and can take control of new drones, which are lined up and brought outside for launch when needed. The reconnaissance drones are often unarmed so they can spend more time in the air to seek a target.

The Ukrainians developed the FPV drone in 2022, when only a few FPV drone attacks were recorded. The Ukrainian Army was the first to appreciate the potential of FPV drones. By the summer of 2023, the Russian Army also began to use FPV drones in greater numbers. Since then, the number of FPV drone attacks has grown exponentially on both sides. Only twelve percent of those attacks led to the destruction of the target, which could be a vehicle or group of infantry or even a sniper who was firing through a window from inside a building. In this case, the armed FPV drone would fly through the window and explode in the room the sniper was in. The only defense from this was having a nearby open door the sniper could run to or dive through as the FPV drone approached. Sometimes that isn’t possible because the armed FPV drone is coming down from above the window and then in. You don’t see those coming until it’s too late.

In 2026 Ukraine plans to build at least eight million drones. About five million drones were built last year. The total for 2024 was 1.5 million drones. There have been problems. Chinese component producers are having a hard time keeping up, and, last year, to assist the Russians, China halted sending drone components to Ukraine. Suppliers in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere were quickly found. At least 70 percent of Ukrainian drones are built entirely in Ukraine, and the rest from imported parts or whole assemblies. Some Ukrainian firms have improvised by using plywood and similar materials for their drones. For the FPV First Person View drones, cheaper is better if the drone can hit its first and only target. Most Ukrainian drones are FPV models, which are considered a form of ammunition.

Both sides now use the FPV drones, but there are substantial differences in how the FPV drones are put to work in combat. The Ukrainians seek out high-value targets like armored vehicles, electronic warfare equipment, anti-aircraft systems, and storage sites for munitions or other supplies. Russian trucks carrying supplies are another prime target.